- China’s Covid Zero Exit Led to 1.9 Million Deaths in Two Months, Study Finds
- Reporting on Excess All-Cause Mortality in China After Ending the Zero COVID Policy
- VitaminDWiki -
58 Virus Moratality studies
China’s Covid Zero Exit Led to 1.9 Million Deaths in Two Months, Study Finds
Bloomberg Aug 25, 2023)
- “Because the Chinese population had been largely shielded from infection with limited natural immunity and was not fully or well vaccinated, the sudden introduction of widespread Covid-19 infection had a devastating impact.”
Download the Bloomberg PDF from VitaminDWiki
Reporting on Excess All-Cause Mortality in China After Ending the Zero COVID Policy
Hong Xiao, PhD1; Zhicheng Wang, PhD2; Fang Liu, MD2; et alJoseph M. Unger, PhD, MS1
JAMA Netw Open. 2023;6(8):e2330877. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.30877Key Points
- Question Was the sudden end of China’s zero COVID policy associated with an increase in population all-cause mortality?
- Findings In this cohort study across all regions in mainland China, an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older during the first 2 months after the end of China’s zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China, with the exception of Tibet.
- Meaning These findings suggest that the sudden lifting of the zero COVID policy in China was associated with significant increases in all-cause mortality.
Importance In China, the implementation of stringent mitigation measures kept COVID-19 incidence and excess mortality low during the first years of the pandemic. However, China’s decision to end its dynamic zero COVID policy (a proactive strategy that deploys mass testing and strict quarantine measures to stamp out any outbreak before it can spread) in December 2022 resulted in a surge in COVID-19 incidence and hospitalizations. Despite worldwide attention given to this event, the actual impact of this sudden shift in policy on population mortality has not been empirically estimated.Objective To assess the association of the sudden shift in China’s dynamic zero COVID policy with mortality using empirical and syndromic surveillance data.
Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study analyzed published obituary data from 3 universities in China (2 in Beijing and 1 in Heilongjiang) and search engine data from the Baidu index (BI; weighted frequency of unique searches for a given keyword relative to the total search volume on the Baidu search engine) in each region of China from January 1, 2016, to January 31, 2023. Using an interrupted time-series design, analyses estimated the relative change in mortality among individuals 30 years and older in the universities and the change in BI for mortality-related terms in each region of China from December 2022 to January 2023. Analysis revealed a strong correlation between Baidu searches for mortality-related keywords and actual mortality burden. Using this correlation, the relative increase in mortality in Beijing and Heilongjiang was extrapolated to the rest of China, and region-specific excess mortality was calculated by multiplying the proportional increase in mortality by the number of expected deaths. Data analysis was performed from February 10, 2023, to March 5, 2023.
Exposure The end to the dynamic zero COVID policy in December 2022 in China.
Main Outcomes and Measures Monthly all-cause mortality by region.
Results An estimated 1.87 million (95% CI, 0.71 million-4.43 million; 1.33 per 1000 population) excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older in China during the first 2 months after the end of the zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China except Tibet.
Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study of the population in China, the sudden lifting of the zero COVID policy was associated with significant increases in all-cause mortality. These findings provide valuable insights for policy makers and public health experts and are important for understanding how the sudden propagation of COVID-19 across a population may be associated with population mortality.
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Note: They apparently considered only excess deaths of only those aged 30-65
Suspect >3 million excess Chinese deaths if include those >age 65
Chart of US COVID deaths vs age: by Sept 2020
VitaminDWiki -
58 Virus Moratality studies This list is automatically updated
- COVID and Vitamin D: 2X more likely to die if low, 2X more likely to survive if supplement – umbrella meta-analysis April 2024
- Moderna report: their COVID vax caused "only" 17,751 deaths - April 2024
- COVID infection (without hospitalization) – 1.7X more likely to die in 6 months if low Vitamin D – March 2024
- Vaccines increased your risk of dying of COVID in NZ - official data - Feb 2024
- 3X increase in unspecified causes of Death (Canada 2019-2022) - Dec 2023
- Deaths after vaccination - also reported in Japan - Dec 2023
- Excess deaths after COVID vaccination - 17 countries - Sept 2023
- Excess Deaths in Australia jumped up in 2022– preprint Feb 2023
- Prevent a COVID death: 9 dollars of Vitamin D or 900,000 dollars of vaccine - Aug 2023
- Number needed to vaccinate to prevent 1 Omicron death: 30,000 for age 60-70 - Sept 2022
- COVID survival in Europe in 2020 best predicted by population-level Vitamin D (of 13 variables) – July 2022
- Elderly who had been in COVID ICU were 4X more likely to die if low vitamin D – Nov 2022
- More COVID mortality if less than 20 ng of Vitamin D (Mexico) – May 2022
- 15,000,000 excess deaths in 2 years - May 2022
- COVID death 5.2X more likely if Vitamin D deficient – May 2022
- 29 X more likely to die of COVID if less than 20 ng of Vitamin D - March 2022
- Giving Vitamin D reduced COVID Mortality– Review of 11 studies – March 2022
- 18 million excess global deaths in past 2 years: COVID plus collateral damage - Lancet March 2022
- COVID severity and death more likely if low vitamin D (Egypt this time) - March 2022
- US nursing homes are epicenters for COVID deaths (200,000) - Feb 2022
- Ivermectin taken before COVID decreased death rate by 68 percent (3,000 with Ivermectin vs 3,000 without) - Dec 24, 2021
- Increase in non-COVID deaths (ages 18-64) in Indiana, India, etc. - Jan 5, 2022
- Only 35,000 died in US of COVID who previously had been healthy
- COVID-19 mortality extrapolates to zero at 50 ng of vitamin D – 18th Meta-analysis Sept 2021
- COVID-19 patients getting 300,000 IU of Vitamin D were 5X less likely to die – Sept 2021
- Predict 2X more likely to die of COVID-19 if vitamin D Deficient (Iran 2020) – Sept 2021
- COVID-19 mortality not associated with Vitamin D (everyone had very low levels) -Sept 2021
- COVID-19 mortality for Blacks is 5X that for whites in 2 LA Hospitals - July 2021
- COVID-19 mortality was associated with vitamin D deficiency of 47 countries – July 2021
- Similar death rate for Vaccination and COVID-19 study and video – June 24, 2021
- COVID-19 death in hospital 5X more likely if low vs high vitamin D – preprint June 2021
- COVID-19 deaths 1.7X more likely if low vitamin D (even after “adjusting” for low D health problems) – May 2021
- COVID-19 deaths 1.5X less likely if more than 40 ng of vitamin D – US VA – April 2021
- Vitamin D supplementation and high levels reduce COVID-19 deaths in elderly – Review April 17, 2021
- Less COVID-19 infection, mortality in countries with higher Vitamin D (Asia in this case) – May 2021
- COVID-19 was the third-leading cause of death in the US, especially in those with dark skins - April 1, 2021
- Risk of COVID-19 death was 4.9 X higher if very low vitamin D – March 31, 2021
- COVID-19 mortality 2X higher if low Vitamin D (Mexican hospital, preprint) - March 2021
- All COVID-19 patients had low vitamin D, the lowest were more likely to die – Feb 18, 2021
- 2.7 fewer COVID-19 hospital deaths in those having more than 30 ng of vitamin D – Mayo Jan 9, 2021
- Worse COVID-19 patients got 400,000 IU of vitamin D, deaths cut in half – Jan 14, 2021
- Iranians with COVID-19 were 2.3 X more likely to die if low vitamin D – Jan 2021
- Poor COVID-19 prognosis was 6 X more likely if low vitamin D – Jan 21, 2021
- Less than 10 dollars of Vitamin D per COVID-19 life saved in Myanmar - Jan 2021
- 2.8 X fewer COVID-19 nursing home deaths if add 10,000 IU Vitamin D daily for a week (small observation)- Jan 2021
- Italian nursing home COVID-19 – 4X less likely to die if taking Vitamin D– Dec 22, 2020
- Shift workers 2X more likely to get COVID-19 (low Vitamin D) - Dec 2020
- Those getting high dose vitamin D were 7 X less likely to die of COVID-19 - Dec 11, 2020
- COVID-19 male mortality increased 3.9 X if low vitamin D – observation Nov 25, 2020
- Hospital COVID-19 observation: 7X more likely to live if more than 20 ng of vitamin D– Nov 19, 2020
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