Predictors of low vitamin D: race, age, and BMI (confirmed now by Machine Learning) – Feb 2024

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Machine learning-based prediction of vitamin D deficiency: NHANES 2001-2018

Front. Endocrinol., 15 February 2024 Volume 15 - 2024 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2024.1327058
Jiale GuoJiale Guo 1, Qionghan HeQionghan He 2, Yehai Li*Yehai Li
1 Department of Orthopedics, Chaohu Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
2 Department of Infection, Chaohu Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China

Background: Vitamin D deficiency is strongly associated with the development of several diseases. In the current context of a global pandemic of vitamin D deficiency, it is critical to identify people at high risk of vitamin D deficiency. There are no prediction tools for predicting the risk of vitamin D deficiency in the general community population, and this study aims to use machine learning to predict the risk of vitamin D deficiency using data that can be obtained through simple interviews in the community.

Methods: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2018 dataset is used for the analysis which is randomly divided into training and validation sets in the ratio of 70:30. GBM, LR, NNet, RF, SVM, XGBoost methods are used to construct the models and their performance is evaluated. The best performed model was interpreted using the SHAP value and further development of the online web calculator.

Results: There were 62,919 participants enrolled in the study, and all participants included in the study were 2 years old and above, of which 20,204 (32.1%) participants had vitamin D deficiency. The models constructed by each method were evaluated using AUC as the primary evaluation statistic and ACC, PPV, NPV, SEN, SPE, F1 score, MCC, Kappa, and Brier score as secondary evaluation statistics. Finally, the XGBoost-based model has the best and near-perfect performance. The summary plot of SHAP values shows that the top three important features for this model are race, age, and BMI. An online web calculator based on this model can easily and quickly predict the risk of vitamin D deficiency.

Conclusion: In this study, the XGBoost-based prediction tool performs flawlessly and is highly accurate in predicting the risk of vitamin D deficiency in community populations.
 Download the PDF from VitaminDWiki

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VitaminDWiki – Predict Vitamin D category contains

It is very difficult to predict the response to supplementation of Vitamin D, or additional sun/UV
There are a huge number of factors involved.
 
This page also has studies predicting deficiency without Vitamin D tests

Examples of 79 studies that Predict Vitamin D levels

• Vitamin D deficiency predicted with 91% accuracy ( AI, age, paywall) - April 2024
• Predictors of low vitamin D: race, age, and BMI (confirmed now by Machine Learning) – Feb 2024
• Low Vitamin D screening with just 5 questions (for less than 12 ng) – June 2022
• Top 10 signs of Vitamin D Deficiency (9 minute Video) - Oct 2021
• Estimate Vitamin D levels based on questionnaires (12 studies) – July 2020
• Is a senior Vitamin D insufficient - a 2 minute questionnaire is 85 percent accurate – Nov 2019
• Simple Vitamin D deficiency scoring system – Feb 2016
• Toward predicting vitamin D levels without a blood test. by VitaminDWiki
• Excellent prediction of very low vitamin D in elderly from just 16 questions (analyzed by ML) – June 2017
• Quick, free, self test of vitamin D deficiency 90% chance <20 ng

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VitaminDWiki – Overview Obesity and Vitamin D contains:

• FACT: People who are obese have less vitamin D in their blood
• FACT: Obese need a higher dose of vitamin D to get to the same level of vit D
• FACT: When obese people lose weight the vitamin D level in their blood increases
• FACT: Adding Calcium, perhaps in the form of fortified milk, often reduces weight
• FACT: 168 trials for vitamin D intervention of obesity as of Dec 2021
• FACT: Less weight gain by senior women with > 30 ng of vitamin D
• FACT: Dieters lost additional 5 lbs if vitamin D supplementation got them above 32 ng - RCT
• FACT: Obese lost 3X more weight by adding $10 of Vitamin D
• FACT: Those with darker skins were more likely to be obese Sept 2014
• OBSERVATION: Low Vitamin D while pregnancy ==> more obese child and adult
• OBSERVATION: Many mammals had evolved to add fat and vitamin D in the autumn
  • and lose both in the Spring - unfortunately humans have forgotten to lose the fat in the Spring
• SPECULATION: Low vitamin D might be one of the causes of obesity – several studies
• SUGGESTION: Probably need more than 4,000 IU to lose weight if very low on vitamin D due to
    risk factors such as overweight, age, dark skin, live far from equator,shut-in, etc.
• Obesity category has 429 items See also: Weight loss and Vitamin D - many studies   Child Obesity and Vitamin D - many studies

Obese need more Vitamin D

• Normal weight     Obese     (50 ng = 125 nanomole)

Click here for 2014 study

• Normal weight     Obese     (50 ng = 125 nanomole)

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VitaminDWiki – Seniors contains:

429 items in Seniors

see also
Overview Seniors and Vitamin D
Overview Muscles and Vitamin D 125+ items
Overview Fractures and Falls and Vitamin D

Falls and Fractures category listing has 255 items along with related searches

Overview Alzheimer's-Cognition and Vitamin D
Overview Cancer and vitamin D
Overview Influenza and vitamin D

Cancer - Prostate category listing has 101 items along with related searches

Overview Diabetes and vitamin D
Hearing Loss appears to be prevented and treated with vitamin D

Mortality category listing has 314 items along with related searches

Overview Osteoporosis and vitamin D
Restless Legs Syndrome dramatically reduced by vitamin D, etc
Overview Rheumatoid Arthritis and vitamin D
Frailty and Vitamin D - many studies many studies
Nursing homes and Vitamin D - many studies
13 reasons why many seniors need more vitamin D (both dose and level) - July 2023 has:

1. Senior skin produces 4X less Vitamin D for the same sun intensity
2. Seniors have fewer vitamin D receptor genes as they age
   Receptors are needed to get Vitamin D in blood actually into the cells
3. Many other Vitamin D genes decrease with age
4. Since many gene activations are not detected by a blood test,
   more Vitamin D is often needed, especially by seniors
5. Seniors are indoors more than when they were younger
   not as agile, weaker muscles; frail, no longer enjoy hot temperatures
6. Seniors wear more clothing outdoors than when younger
   Seniors also are told to fear skin cancer & wrinkles
7. Seniors often take various drugs which end up reducing vitamin D
   Some reductions are not detected by a vitamin D test of the blood
   statins, chemotherapy, anti-depressants, blood pressure, beta-blockers, etc
8. Seniors often have one or more diseases that consume vitamin D
   osteoporosis, diabetes, Multiple Sclerosis, Cancer, ...
9. Seniors generally put on weight as they age - and a heavier body requires more vitamin D
10. Seniors often (40%) have fatty livers – which do not process vitamin D as well
11. Reduced stomach acid means less Magnesium is available to get vitamin D into the cells
12. Vitamin D is not as bioavailable in senior intestines
13. Seniors with poorly functioning kidneys do not process vitamin D as well
       Seniors category has 429 items

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VitaminDWiki – Overview Dark Skin and Vitamin D contains

FACT - - People with dark skins have more health problems and higher mortality rate than those with light skins
FACT - - People with dark skins have low levels of vitamin D
FACT - - People with light skins who have low vitamin D have health problems
OBSERVATION - - The health problems of whites with low level of vitamin D are similar to those with dark skins
CONCLUSION - - People with dark skins have more health problems due to low levels of vitamin D
African American Health Disparities are associated with low Vitamin D - Grant Feb 2021
Low Vitamin D increases health problems - independent of skin color

Dark Skin studies: Pregnancy (28 studies),  Genetics (13 studies),  Vitamin D Binding Protein (8 studies),  Vitamin D Receptor (7 studies),  Diabetes (24 studies),   Cardiovascular (18 studies),  Mortality (12 studies), Intervention (16 studies) Click here to see the studies

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VitaminDWiki – Overview Deficiency of vitamin D contains

FACT: Much of the world is now vitamin D deficient
OBSERVATION:There are many reasons that a person may be vitamin D deficient
11 of the reasons for the epidemic are new in the past 40 years, Example: Air Conditioning
OBSERVATION: The more reasons that apply to an individual, the more likely he is to be deficient (additive reasons)
FACT: Vitamin D Deficiency has been associated with many diseases

FACT: Vitamin D intake can be increased by supplements, injection, UV, and sun (very little by food) 112 items

FACT: Adding vitamin D to diets has been proven E1 E2 in clinical trials to both PREVENT some and TREAT some diseases
OBSERVATION: Adding vitamin D (intervention) does PREVENT and TREAT additional diseases - more trials are underway
OBSERVATION: There are at least 10 ways to increase the response by the blood to vitamin D intake

Details at VitaminDWiki

• All items: Deficiency of Vitamin D 455 items
• Incidence of 22 health problems related to vitamin D have doubled in a decade many charts
• Vitamin D levels have been crashing since 1995 (Polish Children, Elite Military, etc)
• People with gut problems are low on vitamin D – April 2011
• Concealing clothing resulted in only 8 ng vitamin D – Feb 2011
• 23 ng of vitamin D in sunny Israel – Dec 2010
• Need to avoid the sun during the summer in Dubai
• Vitamin D deficiency spares no body part – NE Asia – Jan 2013
  • Diseases associated with Winter and the North are occurring in the Summer now that they can avoid the extreme summer heat with air conditioning
• Vitamin D less than 22 ng in Greece half of the year– May 2011
• Vitamin D insufficiency in UK youths – 37X more likely if dark skin – July 2011
• All items in Far From Equator 124 items
• Beijing extremely vitamin D deficient even in the fall: 10 ng – April 2013
• 93 % of US children had less than 30 ng of vitamin D Oct 2021
• 92 % of ALL Germans less than 30 ng - Jan 2012
• 92 % of German elderly less than 30 ng - Jan 2012
• 91 % of Japanese women less than 30 ng - 2012
• 90 % of Canadian youth less than 30 ng vitamin D – Oct 2010
• 90 % of Swiss men have less than 30 ng of vitamin D in the winter – Nov 2012
• 90 % of young health care professionals had less than 30 ng of vitamin D – Nov 2011
• 87 % of Tennessee general medicine patients had less than 32 ng of vitamin D – Jan 2011
• 86 % of UK elderly less than 30 ng - Jan 2010
• 86 % of US military has less than 32 ng of Vitamin D – Dec 2020
• 82 % of Swedes did not have the recommended amount of vitamin D – Feb 2011
• 80 % of teens in Europe had less than 30 ng of vitamin D – Aug 2011
• 79 % of middle aged Americans had less than 32 ng of vitamin D – July 2010
• 76 % of Irish had less than 30 ng of vitamin D – April 2013
• 70 % of Koreans in their twenties had less than 20ng of vitamin D – Dec 2010
• 50 % of Quebec kids had less than 20 ng of vitamin D – Milk and movement did not help – Mar 2011
• 42 % of US adults less than 20 ng of vitamin D and 82 % of blacks – Jan 2011
• 33 % of pre-teens in Tehran had less than 5 ng of vitamin D – Feb 2011
• 30 % of US had less than 20 ng of vitamin D - CDC March 2011
• 27 % of Turkish mothers has less than 11 ng of vitamin D
• Vitamin D could save More than 10,000 Canadian lives annually LEF
• Teens increasingly indoors - especially if dark skin - July 2010
• Criteria to associate a disease with the lack of vitamin D
• Many reasons why vitamin D deficiency has become epidemic
• Ways to increase the amount of vitamin D you get from the sun
• Review of Vitamin D Deficiencies in developing countries - Oct 2011
• Military and Vitamin D - many studies
• Quick, free, self test of vitamin D deficiency

• Health problem frequency - 1997 = rates of occurrence of human health problems