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Predictors of low vitamin D: race, age, and BMI (confirmed now by Machine Learning) – Feb 2024

Machine learning-based prediction of vitamin D deficiency: NHANES 2001-2018

Front. Endocrinol., 15 February 2024 Volume 15 - 2024 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2024.1327058
Jiale GuoJiale Guo 1, Qionghan HeQionghan He 2, Yehai Li*Yehai Li
1 Department of Orthopedics, Chaohu Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
2 Department of Infection, Chaohu Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China

Background: Vitamin D deficiency is strongly associated with the development of several diseases. In the current context of a global pandemic of vitamin D deficiency, it is critical to identify people at high risk of vitamin D deficiency. There are no prediction tools for predicting the risk of vitamin D deficiency in the general community population, and this study aims to use machine learning to predict the risk of vitamin D deficiency using data that can be obtained through simple interviews in the community.

Methods: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2018 dataset is used for the analysis which is randomly divided into training and validation sets in the ratio of 70:30. GBM, LR, NNet, RF, SVM, XGBoost methods are used to construct the models and their performance is evaluated. The best performed model was interpreted using the SHAP value and further development of the online web calculator.

Results: There were 62,919 participants enrolled in the study, and all participants included in the study were 2 years old and above, of which 20,204 (32.1%) participants had vitamin D deficiency. The models constructed by each method were evaluated using AUC as the primary evaluation statistic and ACC, PPV, NPV, SEN, SPE, F1 score, MCC, Kappa, and Brier score as secondary evaluation statistics. Finally, the XGBoost-based model has the best and near-perfect performance. The summary plot of SHAP values shows that the top three important features for this model are race, age, and BMI. An online web calculator based on this model can easily and quickly predict the risk of vitamin D deficiency.

Conclusion: In this study, the XGBoost-based prediction tool performs flawlessly and is highly accurate in predicting the risk of vitamin D deficiency in community populations.
 Download the PDF from VitaminDWiki

VitaminDWiki – Predict Vitamin D category contains

It is very difficult to predict the response to supplementation of Vitamin D, or additional sun/UV
There are a huge number of factors involved.
This page also has studies predicting deficiency without Vitamin D tests

Examples of 79 studies that Predict Vitamin D levels

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VitaminDWiki – Overview Obesity and Vitamin D contains:

Obese need more Vitamin D

  • Normal weight     Obese     (50 ng = 125 nanomole)

Click here for 2014 study


  • Normal weight     Obese     (50 ng = 125 nanomole)

VitaminDWiki – Seniors contains:

429 items in Seniors

see also
Overview Seniors and Vitamin D
Overview Muscles and Vitamin D 125+ items
Overview Fractures and Falls and Vitamin D

Falls and Fractures category listing has 255 items along with related searches

Overview Alzheimer's-Cognition and Vitamin D
Overview Cancer and vitamin D
Overview Influenza and vitamin D

Cancer - Prostate category listing has 101 items along with related searches

Overview Diabetes and vitamin D
Hearing Loss appears to be prevented and treated with vitamin D

Mortality category listing has 314 items along with related searches

Overview Osteoporosis and vitamin D
Restless Legs Syndrome dramatically reduced by vitamin D, etc
Overview Rheumatoid Arthritis and vitamin D
Frailty and Vitamin D - many studies many studies
Nursing homes and Vitamin D - many studies
13 reasons why many seniors need more vitamin D (both dose and level) - July 2023 has:

  1. Senior skin produces 4X less Vitamin D for the same sun intensity
  2. Seniors have fewer vitamin D receptor genes as they age
    Receptors are needed to get Vitamin D in blood actually into the cells
  3. Many other Vitamin D genes decrease with age
  4. Since many gene activations are not detected by a blood test,
    more Vitamin D is often needed, especially by seniors
  5. Seniors are indoors more than when they were younger
    not as agile, weaker muscles; frail, no longer enjoy hot temperatures
  6. Seniors wear more clothing outdoors than when younger
    Seniors also are told to fear skin cancer & wrinkles
  7. Seniors often take various drugs which end up reducing vitamin D
    Some reductions are not detected by a vitamin D test of the blood
    statins, chemotherapy, anti-depressants, blood pressure, beta-blockers, etc
  8. Seniors often have one or more diseases that consume vitamin D
    osteoporosis, diabetes, Multiple Sclerosis, Cancer, ...
  9. Seniors generally put on weight as they age - and a heavier body requires more vitamin D
  10. Seniors often (40%) have fatty livers – which do not process vitamin D as well
  11. Reduced stomach acid means less Magnesium is available to get vitamin D into the cells
  12. Vitamin D is not as bioavailable in senior intestines
  13. Seniors with poorly functioning kidneys do not process vitamin D as well
       Seniors category has 429 items

VitaminDWiki – Overview Dark Skin and Vitamin D contains

FACT - - People with dark skins have more health problems and higher mortality rate than those with light skins
FACT - - People with dark skins have low levels of vitamin D
FACT - - People with light skins who have low vitamin D have health problems
OBSERVATION - - The health problems of whites with low level of vitamin D are similar to those with dark skins
CONCLUSION - - People with dark skins have more health problems due to low levels of vitamin D
African American Health Disparities are associated with low Vitamin D - Grant Feb 2021
Low Vitamin D increases health problems - independent of skin color

Dark Skin studies: Pregnancy (28 studies),  Genetics (13 studies),  Vitamin D Binding Protein (8 studies),  Vitamin D Receptor (7 studies),  Diabetes (24 studies),   Cardiovascular (18 studies),  Mortality (12 studies), Intervention (16 studies) Click here to see the studies

VitaminDWiki – Overview Deficiency of vitamin D contains

FACT: Much of the world is now vitamin D deficient
OBSERVATION:There are many reasons that a person may be vitamin D deficient
11 of the reasons for the epidemic are new in the past 40 years, Example: Air Conditioning
OBSERVATION: The more reasons that apply to an individual, the more likely he is to be deficient (additive reasons)
FACT: Vitamin D Deficiency has been associated with many diseases

FACT: Vitamin D intake can be increased by supplements, injection, UV, and sun (very little by food) 112 items

FACT: Adding vitamin D to diets has been proven E1 E2 in clinical trials to both PREVENT some and TREAT some diseases
OBSERVATION: Adding vitamin D (intervention) does PREVENT and TREAT additional diseases - more trials are underway
OBSERVATION: There are at least 10 ways to increase the response by the blood to vitamin D intake

Details at VitaminDWiki

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from DSM

DSM 2014