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Zika model indicates 25 times more cases in US as had been reported to the CDC – Aug 2016

There's Probably Way More Zika in the United States Than Has Been Counted Atlantic

  • “In a paper that’s still under review for journal publication, they describe computer modeling that suggests there were nearly 30,000 cases of travel-related Zika in the country in mid-June, about 25 times more cases than the 1,200 or so reported by the CDC at the time”

 Download the non-peer reviewed PDF from VitaminDWiki

Zika infections vs country
Image
“The bold line and shaded area refer to the estimated median number of infections and 95%CI of the model projections, respectively. Rates include asymptomatic infections.
Note: approximately 1 in 4 Zika bites result in symptoms

Births in which Zika was during first trimester (1-4% might be microcephalic)
Image

Zika Reproduction vs season (R0) maps
Image


Comments following a quick read:

  • Many countries are under-reporting, not just the US.
  • Under-reporting is often due to indiviuals not reporting - reasons include
    Not notice any infection
    Not think that the infection was anything special
    Nothing could be done about a Zika infection anyway

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Attached files

ID Name Comment Uploaded Size Downloads
6932 Zika R0.jpg admin 04 Aug, 2016 13:11 73.53 Kb 425
6931 Births with 1st trimester infection.jpg admin 04 Aug, 2016 03:27 56.76 Kb 349
6930 Zika country.jpg admin 04 Aug, 2016 03:26 44.37 Kb 386
6929 Projected spread of Zika virus in the Americas.pdf admin 04 Aug, 2016 03:26 2.98 Mb 357
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