“Our claim: By April 1st, 2022, it will be accepted by health professionals that a vitamin D treatment protocol similar to that used in the study is better than existing treatments (remdesivir and corticosteroids) in reducing the odds of severe outcomes. These existing treatments are estimated to effect a 1.5 reduction in odds of admission to the ICU, which will be used as the threshold.”
- The challenger needs to show that they can commit $100,000. We are open to discussing lower or higher amounts, and the funds can be pooled from multiple sources.
- Both sides will agree in advance on the specifics of how a winner is determined, and what arbitration mechanism to use, if need be.
- The challenger needs to declare that they do not have access to any relevant non-public information. This is to protect from abuse in case of unpublished research (there is still a small chance that further research will discover the treatment is ineffective).
- For the same reason, we may update these terms or withdraw the offer, as new information emerges. Of course, once a bet is made it is final and cannot be withdrawn.
Many health professionals, government officials, and other decision makers worldwide have not updated treatment guidelines.... due to omission bias they default to the “safe” alternative of inaction, waiting for more data, rather than choosing action. It’s easier to later defend inaction than face criticism for acting too soon.
Apparently, there have been no challengers as of Feb 2021
- "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary is dependent upon his not understanding it"
- Hospitals, health professionals, drug producers, vaccine manufacturers, etc, would lose a lot of income if Vitamin D were to be used
- 9 additional reasons are given at: Why are doctors reluctant to accept vitamin D
- see also: Curing patients is not a sustainable business model – Goldman Sachs – April 2018
- see also: When will it become a crime to fail to recommend or provide vitamin D
Instead of rewarding those who show that vitamin D works, we have the following
- Professor who concluded that vitamin D (800 IU) does not help bones got 324,000 dollar prize- Nov 2015
COVID-19 treated by Vitamin D - studies, reports, videos automatically updated
As of April 12 the page had: 34 trials, 5 trial results, 17 meta-analyses and reviews, 52 observations, 34 recommendations, 54 associations, 86 speculations, 43 videos see related: Governments, HealthProblems, Hospitals, Dark Skins, 26 risk factors are ALL associated with low Vit D, Recent Virus pages Fight COVID-19 with 50K Vit D weekly