- Estimated health and economic effects associated with over- and under-exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation in Australia and New Zealand using the SUNEX simulation model
- Both studies failed to consider most diseases proven to be related to low Vitamin D
- VitaminDWiki suspects it is >1,000X more costly to have too little UVB vs too much UVB
Estimated health and economic effects associated with over- and under-exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation in Australia and New Zealand using the SUNEX simulation model
Photochem Photobiol Sci . 2025 May 28. doi: 10.1007/s43630-025-00726-7
Louisa G Collins 1 2 3 4, Thomas M Elliott 5, Ann Webb 6, Ian R Reid 7, Craig Sinclair 8, Tracy Comans 9, Jonathan Karnon 10, Anna Foeglein 11, Karen van Gorp 12, Vanessa Fanning 13, Rachel E Neale 5 9
Multiple health problems are associated with either over- or under-exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Using an agent-based microsimulation model, we examined the joint health and economic effects of conditions arising from over-exposure to sunlight (i.e., melanoma, keratinocyte skin carcinoma (KC) and cataract) and under-exposure to sunlight via vitamin D deficiency (i.e., fragility fractures and multiple sclerosis). We developed an agent-based model to estimate and compare incident cases, disease-specific deaths, healthcare costs and losses in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) attributable to over- or under-exposure to UV radiation. Simulations were performed over a 20-year period for populations in 14 locations across Australia and New Zealand. Conditions caused by over-exposure to UV radiation were predicted to result in 6.0 and 1.2 million new cases compared with 0.12 and 0.08 million cases from under-exposure in Australia and New Zealand, respectively. However, the number of deaths due to under-exposure (Australia: 58,503; New Zealand: 20,104) were higher than those arising from over-exposure (Australia: 49,320; New Zealand: 7136), but this was dependent on the definition of vitamin D deficiency used.
The expected healthcare costs from over-exposure to UV radiation were AU$12.4 billion in Australia and NZ$5.2 billion in New Zealand, three-fold higher than costs for conditions attributable to under-exposure in both countries. Despite the enormous burden of skin cancers, highlighting the importance of sun protection, avoidable deaths and healthcare costs of fragility fractures due to a lack of UV radiation requires a reduction in vitamin D deficiency in Australians and New Zealanders.
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A WHO study looked at UVB and more health problems and found a 2200 X higher cost if low UVB
Both studies failed to consider most diseases proven to be related to low Vitamin D
Cancers of the colon, breast, lung, prostate, pancreatic, ovary, lymphoma, etc.
Autoimmune diseases such as type 1 diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, Lupus, Asthma, allergies
Cardiovascular diseases such as stroke. coronary artery disease; congestive heart failure,
Endocrine disorders such as type 2 diabetes;
ADHD, Alcoholic Liver Cirrhosis, ALS, Autism, Back pain, Chronic Hives, Chronic Kidney Disease, Cluster Headaches, Congestive Heart Failure (Infants), COPD, Crohn's Disease, C-Section and Pregnancy Risks, Cystic Fibrosis, Dengue Fever, Depression, Diabetic Neuropathy, Eczema, Epilepsy, Falls, Fatigue, Fatty Liver (Child), Fibromyalgia, Gestational Diabetes, Gingivitis, Growing Pains, Hay Fever, Heart Attack, Hemodialysis, Hepatitis-C, Hip Fractures, Hypertension, ICU survival, Influenza, Irritable Bowel Syndrome, Knee Osteoarthritis, Leg Ulcers, Long-COVID, Low Birth Weight, Male Infertility, Menstrual Pain, Metabolic Syndrome, Middle Ear Infection (Infants), Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, Osteoarthritis, Parkinson's Disease, Perinatal Depression, Pneumonia (Ventilator-associated), Poor Sleep, PreDiabetes, Preeclampsia, Pre-term Birth, Psoriasis, Quality of Life, Raynaud's Pain, Respiratory Tract Infection, Restless Leg Syndrome, Rickets, Sarcopenia, Sepsis, Sickle Cell, Stronger Senior Muscles, Survive ICU, TB, Tonsillitis, Trauma Death, Traumatic Brain Injury, Tuberculosis, Ulcerative Colitis, Urinary Tract Infection, Vaginosis, Vertigo, Warts, Weight Loss
VitaminDWiki suspects it is >1,000X more costly to have too little UVB vs too much UVB
- Does Less Sun mean More Disease 5 minute video by VitaminDWiki
- Avoiding the sun may be as bad as smoking - many studies
- Sunlight and health - many studies
- The top 10 medical expenses can all be decreased by vitamin D
- Which Is Worse - Avoiding Sunlight or Vitamin D Deficiency – April 2019
- 23 Cancers if little sun
- Low UVB (thus low Vitamin D) is linked to many diseases – Grant Jan 2016
- Vitamin D for all senior Germans would cost-effectively prevent 30,000 cancer deaths annually - March 2021
- Vitamin D has been found to be cost-effective by many studies