Table of contents
- Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21
- 6M recorded COVID deaths - possible reasons for extra 12M include:
- Video review of study by Dr. Campbell March 13, 2022
- Big increase in deaths reported by insurance companies and funeral homes - March 2022
- VitaminDWiki - Excess deaths around the world - 2022
Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21
Lancet March 10, 2022 DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02796-3
Background
Mortality statistics are fundamental to public health decision making. Mortality varies by time and location, and its measurement is affected by well known biases that have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories, and 252 subnational units for selected countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021.
Methods
All-cause mortality reports were collected for 74 countries and territories and 266 subnational locations (including 31 locations in low-income and middle-income countries) that had reported either weekly or monthly deaths from all causes during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and for up to 11 year previously. In addition, we obtained excess mortality data for 12 states in India. Excess mortality over time was calculated as observed mortality, after excluding data from periods affected by late registration and anomalies such as heat waves, minus expected mortality. Six models were used to estimate expected mortality; final estimates of expected mortality were based on an ensemble of these models. Ensemble weights were based on root mean squared errors derived from an out-of-sample predictive validity test. As mortality records are incomplete worldwide, we built a statistical model that predicted the excess mortality rate for locations and periods where all-cause mortality data were not available. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression as a variable selection mechanism and selected 15 covariates, including both covariates pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as seroprevalence, and to background population health metrics, such as the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, with direction of effects on excess mortality concordant with a meta-analysis by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. With the selected best model, we ran a prediction process using 100 draws for each covariate and 100 draws of estimated coefficients and residuals, estimated from the regressions run at the draw level using draw-level input data on both excess mortality and covariates. Mean values and 95% uncertainty intervals were then generated at national, regional, and global levels. Out-of-sample predictive validity testing
was done on the basis of our final model specification.
Findings
Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5·94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 17·1–19·6) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120·3 deaths (113·1–129·3) per 100 000 of the population, and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 of the population in 21 countries. The number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in
- India (4·07 million [3·71–4·36]), the
- USA (1·13 million [1·08–1·18]),
- Russia (1·07 million [1·06–1·08]),
- Mexico (798 000 [741 000–867 000]),
- Brazil (792 000 [730 000–847 000]),
- Indonesia (736 000 [594 000–955 000]), and
- Pakistan (664 000 [498 000–847 000]).
Among these countries, the excess mortality rate was highest in
- Russia (374·6 deaths [369·7–378·4] per 100 000) and
- Mexico (325·1 [301·6–353·3] per 100 000),
and was similar in
- Brazil (186·9 [172·2–199·8] per 100 000) and the
- USA (179·3 [170·7–187·5] per 100 000).
Interpretation
The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone. Strengthening death registration systems around the world, long understood to be crucial to global public health strategy, is necessary for improved monitoring of this pandemic and future pandemics. In addition, further research is warranted to help distinguish the proportion of excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic.
Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, and J and E Nordstrom
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Download the Appendix
6M recorded COVID deaths - possible reasons for extra 12M include:
- COVID was not the primary reason for the death
- Death occured after recovering from COVID in hospital
- Death did not occur in hospital
- Extreme depression, resulting in suicide
- Starvation resulting in death after losing a job
- Long-haul (following COVID)
- Increased deaths due to drug overdose
- Unable to get standard/elective medical care during pandemic
- Increase in reckless behaviors - resulting in auto fatalities for example
- Lockdowns decreased Vitamin D levels, resulting in more health problems and deaths
- COVID Vaccinations
- COVID deaths INCREASED among non-seniors – Dec 28, 2021
- 3,900 deaths within 2 weeks of 2nd vaccination in Sweden - Nov 18, 2021
- 2X more male teens died than normal in England this summer (perhaps vaccination) - Oct 2021
- Higher rate of serious Vaccination problems than COVID-19 deaths – June 24, 2021
Video review of study by Dr. Campbell March 13, 2022
Big increase in deaths reported by insurance companies and funeral homes - March 2022
Substack
Also has 10X increase in neurological issues in US DoD