Canada doubled vitamin D in milk and margarine – most adults will still get under 400 IU from food

Canada’s Updated Vitamin D Fortification Strategy is Anticipated to Improve Vitamin D Intakes and Status based on Modeling of National Data

The Journal of Nutrition (Journal Pre-proof), accepted October 5, 2026, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tjnut.2026.101875

Janice L. Daoust, Chantal Martineau, Krista Esslinger, Lidia Loukine, Fuqi Chen, The Minh Luong, Cunye Qiao, Nadine Kebbe, Isabelle Rondeau, Hope A. Weiler

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Summary by Claude Opus 5.5 - October, 2026

Bottom line: Canada roughly doubled the vitamin D required in milk and margarine (2022) and allowed it in yogurt and kefir (2024). Health Canada's own modeling projects real gains. Yet even if every manufacturer takes part, most Canadians would still get less than 400 IU a day from food, and about 1 in 7 adults would remain below 16 ng/mL (40 nmol/L)._

Study type and size: This is a modeling study, not a trial. It used real national data: 24-hour diet recalls from 19,369 people aged 1+ (2015) and measured blood levels from 21,387 people aged 3–79 (2012–2019). The authors substituted the new fortification amounts into what people actually ate:

Milk and plant beverages: 0.88 → 2 µg/100 mL (a 250 mL glass goes from 88 to 200 IU)
Margarine: 13 → 26 µg/100 g
Yogurt 5 µg/100 g and kefir 2.7 µg/100 mL (not previously allowed)

Projected results

Below the 400 IU/day requirement (EAR) from food: >85.7% of every age group in 2015 → 34–66% of children and teens, 63–81% of non-pregnant adults, 51% of pregnant/lactating women
Even after doubling, milk and plant beverages supply only 2.7–8.0 µg (108–320 IU)/day on average
Below 16 ng/mL: children and teens 15.3% → 10.6%; adults 19.6% → 14.6%
Black, Middle Eastern and South-East Asian adults aged 19–50 remain 83–87% below 400 IU from food (White adults 72%)
No group exceeded the Upper Limit from food alone

For comparison, the authors note that Finland's fortification cut the share of non-supplementing adults below 16 ng/mL from 34.2% to 5.0%. The authors themselves caution: "The impact will need to be confirmed using new surveillance data."

What this does NOT show

No blood levels were measured after fortification began; every "after" number is a projection
No health outcomes of any kind were measured
Assumes 100% of yogurt, kefir and plant-beverage makers fortify at the maximum allowed level
Diet data are from 2015, and milk drinking has been falling
The blood-level model explained only 18–32% of the variation in 25(OH)D, and its spread was rebuilt with 100 simulated values per person
The projected rise above 50 ng/mL (125 nmol/L) is likely partly a model artifact. Projections: children 1.5% → 3.8%, adults 4.0% → 7.1%. Before any change, the model already overestimated this group (adults 2.8% measured vs 4.0% modeled; ages 3–5: 0.9% vs 3.0%). 125 nmol/L is the 2011 IOM caution threshold, and no adverse effects were measured
The surveys excluded reserves, the Territories and institutions; the intake analysis also excluded people taking more than 1,000 IU/day of supplements
The authors are Health Canada staff assessing Health Canada's own policy

Canada doubled vitamin D in milk and margarine – most adults will still get under 400 IU from food

Canada’s Updated Vitamin D Fortification Strategy is Anticipated to Improve Vitamin D Intakes and Status based on Modeling of National Data

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