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Half of COVID-19 death rate differences explained by rates of elderly influenza vaccination and low vitamin D – April 2021

Preprint - not yet peer reviewed
Rainer J. Klement1 rainer klement at gmx.de & Harald Walach2-3-4
1 Department of Radiation Oncology, Leopoldina Hospital Schweinfurt, Germany
2 Poznan Medical University, Dept. Pediatric Gastroenterology, Poznan, Poland
3 University Witten-Herdecke, Dept. Psychology, Witten, Germany
4 Change Health Science Institute, Berlin, Germany


Study of 44 European Countries using 6 variables

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Objectives: To clarify the high variability in Covid-19 related deaths whose origin is unclear. Study Design: Modeling of available data

Methods: We used six individual- and country-specific variables to predict the number of population standardized Covid-19 related deaths in 44 European countries using generalized linear models: Percent test-standardized number of SARS-CoV-2-cases, population size, life expectancy, severity of governmental responses, influenza-vaccination coverage and vitamin D status in the elderly.

Results: We found that flu-vaccination coverage in the elderly was the most important predictor, together with test-standardized cases and vitamin D status explaining approximately 47% of the variation in Covid-19 related deaths. Higher flu vaccination coverage and low vitamin D status were associated with more Covid-19 related deaths. Life-expectancy, population size and the severity of governments’ responses to the outbreak did not emerge as significant predictors in multivariable modeling. The latter variable even appeared to be completely negligible.

Conclusion: Adequate vitamin D levels are important, while - contrary to current opinion - flu-vaccination in the elderly is a putative aggravating factor of Covid-19 related deaths.

Created by admin. Last Modification: Wednesday May 26, 2021 01:47:43 GMT-0000 by admin. (Version 8)

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15646 Prediction_of_Covid-19_deaths influenza and vit d preprint.pdf PDF 2021 admin 26 May, 2021 01:29 299.10 Kb 354