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COVID-19 will continue thru the summer - yes, no, maybe

A variety of "opinions" (under construction)


Coronavirus unlikely to significantly diminish with warm weather, National Academies of Sciences panel finds Washington Post April 8

Summer Heat May Not Diminish Coronavirus Strength NYT April 8

Seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E): results from the Flu Watch cohort study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review] March 2020?
 Download the PDF from VitaminDWiki

Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission
"Our findings give hope that, for northern hemisphere countries, the growth rate should significantly decrease as a result of both warmer weather and lockdown policies."
 Download the PDF from VitaminDWiki

Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the COVID-19 pandemic
"summer temperatures will not substantially limit pandemic growth."
 Download the PDF from VitaminDWiki

Predict the next moves of COVID-19: reveal the temperate and tropical countries scenario
"However, some literature predicted that this might not to be true, rather irrespective of weather conditions there might be a continuous spread
and death."
"Moreover, a large number of asymptotic COVID-19 carrier in both temperate and tropical countries may re-outbreak in the coming winter"
 Download the PDF from VitaminDWiki

Variety of interesting charts by a computer scientist at University of College London

    • Reported (not actual) cases vs Italy: Spain 8 days behind, UK and US 14 days behind
    • Far slower growth rate in warm countries (higher vitamin D?)

Image


I notice the outbreak of COVID-19 in many countries (India and Iran for example) which are hot (>100 degrees F).
It does not appear that high heat of summer will prevent the Coronavirus from spreading.
The previous Coronavirus are seasonal (Influenza, colds).
This one does not appears to be so now.
I get the impression that > 40 ng is needed to stop this Coronavirus,
    whereas previous ones were stopped by ~>20 ng - available to most in the summer
One model predicts that COVID-19 will become seasonal in a few years
    after becoming 100X more virulent this fall
 
Henry Lahore, founder of VitaminDWiki April 9, 2020


Some COVID-19 models of the future

https://covid19-scenarios.org/

https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/

Model predicts 100 X worse Coronavirus outbreak in the fall of 2020 – March 2020
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Created by admin. Last Modification: Saturday April 11, 2020 02:32:11 GMT-0000 by admin. (Version 18)

Attached files

ID Name Comment Uploaded Size Downloads
13715 Unsure about influence of temperature.pdf PDF 2020 admin 10 Apr, 2020 00:21 710.41 Kb 115
13714 Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission.pdf PDF 2020 admin 10 Apr, 2020 00:10 499.86 Kb 108
13713 Climate has a modest effect.pdf PDF 2020 admin 10 Apr, 2020 00:10 6.23 Mb 103
13712 Seasonality CoV Aldridge.pdf PDF 2020 admin 09 Apr, 2020 18:05 1.01 Mb 113
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