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100,000 dollar bet that health professionals will concur that vitamin D reduces severe CoVID-19 by at least 1.5 X – Sept 2020

$100,000 Challenge Following Recent Covid-19 Studies

“Our claim: By April 1st, 2022, it will be accepted by health professionals that a vitamin D treatment protocol similar to that used in the study is better than existing treatments (remdesivir and corticosteroids) in reducing the odds of severe outcomes. These existing treatments are estimated to effect a 1.5 reduction in odds of admission to the ICU, which will be used as the threshold.”


  • The challenger needs to show that they can commit $100,000. We are open to discussing lower or higher amounts, and the funds can be pooled from multiple sources.
  • Both sides will agree in advance on the specifics of how a winner is determined, and what arbitration mechanism to use, if need be.
  • The challenger needs to declare that they do not have access to any relevant non-public information. This is to protect from abuse in case of unpublished research (there is still a small chance that further research will discover the treatment is ineffective).
  • For the same reason, we may update these terms or withdraw the offer, as new information emerges. Of course, once a bet is made it is final and cannot be withdrawn.

Many health professionals, government officials, and other decision makers worldwide have not updated treatment guidelines.... due to omission bias they default to the “safe” alternative of inaction, waiting for more data, rather than choosing action. It’s easier to later defend inaction than face criticism for acting too soon.

Apparently, there have been no challengers as of Feb 2021

An additional reason was given by Upton Sinclair in 1935

Instead of rewarding those who show that vitamin D works, we have the following

COVID-19 treated by Vitamin D - studies, reports, videos automatically updated

As of April 12 the page had:  34 trials5 trial results,  17 meta-analyses and reviews,   52 observations,   34 recommendations,   54 associations,  86 speculations,  43 videos   see related:   Governments,   HealthProblems,   Hospitals,  Dark Skins,   26 risk factors are ALL associated with low Vit D,   Recent Virus pages   Fight COVID-19 with 50K Vit D weekly

Created by admin. Last Modification: Wednesday February 24, 2021 22:27:09 GMT-0000 by admin. (Version 4)
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