If ANY of these vaccination problems occur, the US will not accomplish herd immunity

1. Many adults will remain vaccine-hesitant (currently 30% of adults, might drop to 15%)

2. Many children (24% of the population) may not get vaccinated - various reasons

        No trials are currently underway for those under age 12

        Child vaccine trials may not get emergency approval

        Even if approved, 1/3 of parents surveyed refuse to have their children vaccinated

3. Vaccine immunity may wear off too soon (1 year is typical for influenza vaccine)

4. Vaccines may not as effective against new variants - including those new variants generated by the vaccines

5. Vaccines might not actually stop asymptomatic infection

There is no contingency plan in case we do not achieve herd immunity with just vaccines

A good immune system can deal with varients. Vitamin D can improve the immune system

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References: VitaminDWiki

How healthy innate immune systems adapt to viral mutations - Feb 2021

COVID-19 treated by Vitamin D - studies, reports, videos

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Vitamin D meta-analyses for COVID-19

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References: Web

Children

• You’re Vaccinated. Your Kids Are Not. What Now? NY Times April 14, 2021

• 19% of all US COVID-19 infections in the Us are children MD Edge April 2021

  • But only 0.06% of COVID-19 deaths are children

• About 12% of U.S. children with COVID-19 were hospitalized in 2020 MD Edge April 2021

• When can kids get the COVID-19 vaccine? A pediatrician answers 5 key questions Fast Company March 23, 2021

• Pfizer, BioNTech launch COVID-19 vaccine trial in kids under 12 MDEdge March 26

  • Starting dose sizing trails now. Clinical trials for efficacy later. They hope to get approval to inject kids in early 2022

  Non-kids

• 45% of US Republicans surveyed this week do not plan to get vaccinated NY Times April 14, 2021

• Immunisation, asymptomatic infection, herd immunity, and the new variants of COVID 19 -preprint Jan 2021

  • "That the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine may not prevent asymptomatic infection and therefore stop all transmission was suggested even in early non-human primate studies which found “there was no difference in nasal shedding between vaccinated and control SARS-CoV-2-infected macaques (van Doremalen et al., 2020). "   📄 PDF

• Larry Brilliant: Wired Magazine Interview April 1, 2021

  • Herd immunity cannot be accomplished when there are variants

  • "That's not how any pandemic ends."

  • "We need a plan B "

  • "That’s part of your plan B, what you call a comprehensive rapid-detection and outbreak-containment system"

    • Note: His plan B relies on notifying people who have been in close contact with a person who is infected with a new variant via their smartphone.

    • Unfortunately,

      • 1) 30% of the population do not have Smartphones (mainly elderly and children)

      • 2) Suspect that many smartphone owners will not want to download the app

      • 3) Suspect that many will not want to get vaccinated yet again because they had been near someone in the previous few days who got a COVID-21 infection

      • He assumes that the vaccine manufacturers will be able to develop variants as fast as the virus can make varients

• Can Vaccinated People Spread the Virus? We Don’t Know, Scientists Say NYT April 1, 2021

  • Researchers pushed back after the C.D.C. director asserted that vaccinated people “do not carry the virus.”

• 9% of the world have been vaccinated NYT April 4

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