Ivermectin for COVID-19 in Peru: 14-fold reduction in nationwide excess deaths, p=.002 for effect by state, then 13-fold increase after ivermectin use restricted
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Juan J. Chamie-Quintero,a Jennifer A. Hibberd,b David E Scheimc
Note: The sections of Peru of getting the most Ivermectin had the biggest declines in excess deaths
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Introduction. On May 8, 2020, Peru’s Ministry of Health approved ivermectin (IVM), a drug of Nobel Prize-honored distinction, for inpatient and outpatient treatment of COVID-19. As IVM treatments proceeded in that nation of 33 million residents, excess deaths decreased 14-fold over four months through December 1, 2020, consistent with clinical benefits of IVM for COVID-19 as have emerged in several RCTs. But after IVM use was sharply restricted under a new president, excess deaths then increased 13fold.
Methods. To evaluate possible IVM treatment effects suggested by these aggregate trends, excess deaths were analyzed by state for ages > 60 in Peru’s 25 states. To identify potential confounding factors, Google mobility data, population densities, SARS-CoV-2 genetic variations and seropositivity rates were also examined.
Results. The 25 states of Peru were grouped by extent of IVM distributions: maximal (mass IVM distributions through operation MOT, a broadside effort led by the army); medium (locally managed IVM distributions); and minimal (restrictive policies in one state, Lima).
The mean reduction in excess deaths 30 days after peak deaths was
- 74% for the maximal IVM distribution group,
- 53% for the medium group and
- 25% for Lima. (minimal)
Reduction of excess deaths is correlated with extent of IVM distribution by state with p<0.002 using the Kendall Tb test.
Conclusion. Mass treatments with IVM, a drug safely used in 3.7 billion doses worldwide since 1987, most likely caused the 14-fold reductions in excess deaths in Peru, prior to their 13-fold increase after IVM policy was reversed. This strongly suggests that IVM treatments can likewise effectively complement immunizations to help eradicate COVID-19. The indicated biological mechanism of IVM, competitive binding with SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, is likely non-epitope specific, possibly yielding full efficacy against emerging viral mutant strains.