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Climate change predicted to cause 15,000 viruses to transfer to new hosts – April 2022

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

Nature (2022) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w    PDF behind $30 paywall
Colin J. Carlson, Gregory F. Albery, Cory Merow, Christopher H. Trisos, Casey M. Zipfel, Evan A. Eskew, Kevin J. Olival, Noam Ross & Shweta Bansal

At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals 1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife 3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the novel cross-species transmission of their viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Surprisingly, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking species’ range shifts, especially in tropical regions that harbor the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

Supplementary file is not behind a paywall

One of scores of maps

 Download the supplementary PDF from VitaminDWiki

A good review of the above study (which is behind a paywall)

We Created the Pandemicene The Atlantic

It appears that climate change may cause many more pandemics

Created by admin. Last Modification: Thursday April 28, 2022 11:47:07 GMT-0000 by admin. (Version 5)

Attached files

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17513 Climate map lable.jpg admin 28 Apr, 2022 11:32 7.84 Kb 55
17512 Climate visus world map.jpg admin 28 Apr, 2022 11:32 33.29 Kb 71
17511 Supp figures climate change virus_CompressPdf.pdf PDF 2022 admin 28 Apr, 2022 11:31 893.83 Kb 48
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